Business

Global Markets, U.S - China Trade, Tesla, Chips & India Trends

Paolo Trulli

— 3 min read
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Good morning. As of 2025-10-24, markets are balancing upbeat earnings with policy risk. Today’s brief connects five themes: global cross‑asset moves, U.S.–China trade escalation, Tesla’s Q3 deliveries, semiconductor cycle dynamics, and India’s festive‑season trading backdrop.

Global Market Snapshot

Risk appetite is tentatively higher but choppy: Europe/Asia were mixed and U.S. futures softer as investors parse earnings, trade headlines, and sanctions (CNBC). Luxury and autos led notable moves with Kering surging on improving Gucci trends and Volvo Cars spiking on a profit beat (CNBC; CNBC). U.S. yields firmed with the 10‑year near 4.0% as inflation and trade risks refocused attention (CNBC; TradingEconomics). Oil advanced after new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers, while gold’s sharp swings persisted amid a stronger dollar and profit‑taking (CNBC; TradingEconomics; Bloomberg; CNBC). The dollar firmed ahead of U.S. CPI and trade news, pressuring EM FX and the yen; EUR/USD hovered near 1.16 (CNBC; TradingEconomics). In Asia, the Bank of Korea held at 2.5% and tightened property rules, contributing to a whipsaw session in Korean equities (CNBC). Crypto remained volatile with Bitcoin elevated near $109k versus prior selloffs (TradingEconomics; Bloomberg).

Escalation in U.S. - China Trade

Policy risk rose into a planned leaders’ summit as Washington weighs a Section 301 compliance probe, broader software‑export curbs, and higher tariffs, while Beijing tightened rare‑earth export controls. Reports include talk of potential 100% tariffs, a near‑term 301 filing, and restrictions on items made with U.S. software; the U.S. also moved to diversify rare‑earth supply with Australia (AP; NYTimes; TradingEconomics; Yahoo). Market implications span higher implied volatility around meeting dates, execution and revenue risk for chipmakers, input risk for defense/aerospace from rare‑earth constraints, potential upside for ex‑China miners, and tariff‑linked consumer price pressures (Yahoo; AP).

Tesla Deliveries, the Q3 Pop and What to Watch

Tesla posted record deliveries and revenue, aided in part by pull‑forward demand ahead of the U.S. EV tax‑credit expiration, but missed on adjusted earnings as margins compressed and regulatory‑credit income fell. Updates cite automotive revenue around $21.2B, deliveries in the high‑400Ks (~481k), and total revenue near $28.1B; shares softened as investors focused on margin trajectory and Q4 demand visibility (AOL; Yahoo; Morningstar). The near‑term setup hinges on sequential deliveries versus Q3, the mix of regulatory credits, FX/tariff effects, and factory fixed‑cost absorption; the longer‑term multiple leans on credible monetization of FSD/robotaxi initiatives (Yahoo; TipRanks).

Semiconductor Sector Headwinds

Chips are in a cyclical correction complicated by policy shifts: legacy consumer/auto and memory segments face inventory overhangs, while AI‑centric nodes and advanced packaging show resilient orders. STMicro’s cautious sales outlook underscores broad softness; BE Semiconductor reported sequential revenue pressure but a rebound in AI‑related orders alongside a €60m buyback (TechinAsia; FinancialContent). China’s push for tech self‑reliance adds supply‑chain and access risk for global vendors, and FX/macroeconomic volatility is amplifying earnings swings during the inventory clean‑up (Bloomberg; FinancialContent). Focus on order books, book‑to‑bill, advanced packaging exposure, and balance‑sheet strength.

In Muhurat trading, Nifty closed near 25,868 and Sensex around 84,426 with breadth positive and mid/small‑caps outperforming; DIIs and FIIs were net buyers, supporting sentiment (Moneycontrol). Analysts favored autos, financials, and IT into Samvat 2082, while media/telecom/metals showed intraday strength; near‑term technicals flag resistance around 25,900–26,000 and support near 25,700/25,500 (Moneycontrol; NSE). Gold’s record‑driven volatility and sharp one‑day corrections in silver ETFs (up to ~7% down) remain key for commodity‑linked positioning and tactical trades (Moneycontrol).

Conclusion:

The mosaic points to a risk‑on bias tempered by headline risk. Watch U.S. CPI/Fed signals, trade and export‑control announcements, and any additional sanctions shaping energy and metals. In equities, prioritize balance‑sheet strength and pricing power; in semis, lean toward advanced packaging beneficiaries; for autos/EVs, track Tesla’s Q4 cadence and margin mix; in India, respect technical levels while watching FII/DII flow trends (CNBC; NYTimes; Moneycontrol).

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