Business

Liquidity, AI, Earnings, Copper, Tesla - Nov 2, 2025

Paolo Trulli

— 3 min read
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This edition connects five investor lenses: Egypt’s liquidity dynamics, a pivotal U.S. earnings stretch, copper as an AI-era enabler, a Saudi small-cap earnings check, and incremental institutional flows into Tesla.

Egypt’s money-supply surge

Liquidity growth in Egypt likely reflects FX adjustments, IMF program milestones, and efforts to ease domestic financing strains. Near term, rapid money growth can sustain inflation pressure, influence FX stability, and shape local rates—affecting T-bill demand and equity risk premia.

Focus on:
(1) M1/M2 growth vs. CPI trends;
(2) FX reserves and net foreign assets;
(3) local bill/bono yields and auction cover;
(4) official vs. parallel FX signals; and
(5) IMF disbursement timing and conditionality.

Monitor Central Bank communiqués and IMF updates for policy guidance and benchmarks. CBE IMF

Earnings outlook

With more than 130 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, a resilient rally meets elevated multiples and policy ambiguity. Q3 profits were tracking a double-digit gain with a high beat rate, but the S&P 500 forward P/E above 23 intensifies the burden on earnings delivery. Chair Powell signaled a December cut is not guaranteed, underscoring rate-path uncertainty. Investing

  • Quality over headline beats: prioritize revenue growth, margins, and FCF conversion.
  • AI and capex guidance: weigh ROIC pathways vs. expense creep.
  • Labor signals: hiring/layoff color may substitute for delayed macro data.
  • Guidance cadence: upward revisions rewarded; caution risks multiple compression.
  • Watch semis and AI platforms: AMD, Qualcomm, Palantir, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon. Investing

Tactical take: lean into recurring revenue, strong FCF, and credible AI monetization; hedge where valuation outruns earnings visibility; treat prints as catalysts for re-sizing—not for chasing momentum. Investing

Copper: the strategic, under-owned enabler of the AI era

AI’s physical layer—power generation, transmission, cooling, and EV charging—is copper-intensive, offering a way to participate in electrification without paying software-like multiples. EconomicTimes

  • Demand drivers: hyperscale data centers and networks, EVs and charging, plus grid upgrades for renewables. IEA CopperAlliance
  • Supply constraints: aging mines, declining grades, concentrated refining, and recycling bottlenecks elevate scarcity value. USGS CopperAlliance
  • Exposure toolkit: miners, smelters/refiners and cable makers, recyclers, or ETFs/futures (e.g., $COPX). GlobalX
  • Key gauges: LME/SHFE inventories, new-mine pipeline/capex, China refining margins/output, and hyperscale/EV buildouts. LME USGS IEA

Risks: cyclical demand, substitution/efficiency gains, and permitting/ESG delays. Net: copper is the infrastructure lever on AI/EV/renewables rather than a pure AI play. EconomicTimes

Q3 earnings: Tourism Enterprise (Shams) posts small loss; watch fund and Murabaha exposures

Shams reported a Q3 2025 net loss of SAR 363.8k on SAR 1.58m in sales, a sharp reversal y/y and sequential revenue decline. Management and local coverage point to weaker Murabaha returns and valuation impacts from the SEDCO Capital Ajdan Fairmont Fund as key pressure points through nine months. MarketScreener TradingView Argaam

  • Monitor: fund valuation updates (SEDCO Ajdan Fairmont), Murabaha yield trajectory, occupancy-driven revenue recovery, and equity/capital actions. Argaam
  • Risk: prolonged low returns on cash/investments or further mark-to-market hits could extend losses and pressure ratios. MarketScreener

Bottom line: absent visible improvement in investment income and operating margins, earnings normalization may be slow. MarketScreener

Fund activity. iA Global Asset Management adds 4,014 TSLA shares

iA Global Asset Management increased its Tesla stake by 2.2% in Q2, buying 4,014 shares to 186,117 total (~0.9% of the portfolio; 27th-largest holding), valued near $59.1m at quarter end per filings. Institutional ownership remains broad (~66%); other managers reported modest adds in the same cycle (e.g., Triglav Investments D.O.O. +4,400 shares). MarketBeat InsuranceNewsNet MarketBeat

Investor takeaway: a signal of incremental confidence rather than a position reset—watch subsequent 13F updates and delivery/earnings cadence for evidence of sustained accumulation. MarketBeat

Conclusion:

Liquidity regimes (Egypt), profit delivery vs. valuation (U.S. earnings), and real-asset bottlenecks (copper) are defining near-term macro and thematic risk/reward. Company-specific prints (Shams) and incremental flows (Tesla) add micro signals. Into year-end, maintain discipline around cash generation and capex returns, use earnings to re-underwrite positions, and track copper’s supply-demand tape alongside policy developments guiding EM liquidity.

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